Daily Market Analysis 2013

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FX Daily Commentary Archives (2013 Q1-Q4 FISCAL YEAR)

December 31, 2013

North American futures opening towards the red zone we should be in for another light trading day. This morning we have the Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 10am, and on later this Thursday the Jobless Claims along with ISM Manufacturing PMI for December. Expected resistances for today coming at 1.0705 and lower support found at 1.0614 levels.
With the end of 20-13 the European Market all trading in the red zone with the Euro losing grounds for the first time in the last 5 consecutive days against majority of currencies after reports stating the Euro- region’s of economy will trail behind the US, and increase further pressure on the ECB to keep the interest rates at low level, The EURUSD just rebounding from a 2 year high of 1.3893, and currently trading at 1.3775 level. The New Year begins with Latvia entering as the 18th Euro-Currency member. Today resistance comes in at 1.3838 and lower support can be found at 1.3745.
The Sterling strengthened above 1.6500 levels as the speculation fueling of the stronger housing market recovery supporting of the Great Britain’s economic recovery. Today resistance can be seen for the Sterling at 1.6536 and lower support at 1.6465.
Nikkei also closing up in the negative zone up 0.69%, today the Yen resistances can be found at 105.38 while lower support coming in at 104.75.
The Aussie dollar pushing above .8900 levels after the biggest decline in trading since 2008. The Governor Glenn Stevens from RBA still indicating the AUD needs to decline yet another 5% given with economic outlook. The resistance level can be found at .8945 and support comes in at .8849.
Trading Range Today:

  • USD/CAD: 1.0610-1.0675
  • EUR/CAD: 1.4615-1.4675
  • GBP/CAD: 1.7550-1.7630
  • CAD/JPY: 98.40- 98.85
  • AUD/CAD: .9480-.9520

By Louise Doan, Goldium FX

December 30, 2013

A light trading day should be expected with only data to see is the November US Pending Home Sales at 10am expected increase of 1%. The USDCAD pair had rally back into the upper levels 1.0700 late Friday prior the North American market closure and today’s resistance level at 1.0745 and support coming at 1.0645.
Also very light trading overnight session in Europe with the equity markets heading towards a negative zone. Only data was Italian Business Confidence, with an increase from 98.1 to 98.2, however still below expectation of 99. The Euro trades at the upper handle of 1.3700 as high as 1.3780, today’s resistance for the EURUSD coming in at 1.3865 and first support at 1.3660.
The Great Britain Pound just trading around the 1.6470 levels vs. the Greenback. Today’s resistance levels come in at 1.6575 while support seen at 1.6400.
The Yen weakened ahead to another 5-year lows trading at 105.41 levels, which further strength the Nikkei. Next levels to watch for are 105.54 and support at 104.85.
Meanwhile the Australian Dollar remaining weak trading back to the .8800 level. Today resistance at 0.8912 and support can be seen at 0.8845.
Trading Range Today:

  • USD/CAD: 1.0640-1.0725
  • EUR/CAD: 1.4735-1.4780
  • GBP/CAD: 1.7550-1.7640
  • CAD/JPY: 98.10- 98.55
  • AUD/CAD: .9480-.9525

By Louise Doan, Goldium FX

December 27, 2013

Futures markets from North American futures are headed towards a green opening, we should expect a very light trading day no economic data will be released, it’s still in a holiday mode for many people. The Greenback has moved higher vs. the Loonie, just breaking a tad over 1.0670 levels in the overnight trading. Today’s resistance levels is at 1.0706 and support at 1.0625.
The Euro moving into highest level of trading for the year reaching 1.3893, after comments from ECB keeping interest rates low could be an endangerment to political reforms, low inflation should not be used to condone loose monetary policy. The EURUSD pair breaking through the key levels of 1.3830 has opened way for possibility of seeing the pair reach resistance levels of 1.4000 sooner, today’s support for EURUSD comes in at 1.3670.
The Sterling pushing into that 2-year high mark vs. the USD trading as high as 1.6578 levels with the recent momentum increasing confidence that the UK economy is on the right path is gaining positive reflections in the markets the next resistance at 1.6581 and support at 1.6360.
The Aussie & Greenback pair just trading above the .8900 mark. Even though the level was was infracted last week, support for the pair still around the 0.8870-0.8880 levels, and resistance at 0.8925.
Some economic releases from Japan inflation excluding energy and food rose to 1.2% vs. 1.1% expected, moving closer to the BoJ goals of 2% inflation. We also saw Jobless Rate unchanged at 4%. The USDJPY pair broke the 105.00 levels vs. the Greenback in overnight trading, reaching as high as 105.03 level next resistances levels at 105.14, and support at 104.50.
Trading Range Today:

  • USD/CAD: 1.0610-1.0680
  • EUR/CAD: 1.4710-1.4780
  • GBP/CAD: 1.7570-1.7640
  • CAD/JPY: 98.20- 98.55
  • AUD/CAD: .9480-.9515

By Louise Doan, Goldium FX

December 24, 2013

Overnight markets flat – heading into the last trading day for the North Americas, Today in with some important US data, November Durable Goods release expected reading of 2%, than followed up with New Home Sales expected at 440K, and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, expected at 10. The USDCAD pair traded in quite narrow trading range overnight; perhaps only until the Holiday Season is over.
European markets are trading a tad in positive zone. Only release is the French GDP for Q3 final reading come at -0.1% as expected. The EURUSD pair is trading just under the 1.3700 levels, trading around 1.3680. Today’s resistance topside is at 1.3720, followed by 1.3745, and support at 1.3670.
The main news out of the China region, which has led to a decline in risk aversion is that the PBOC commentary from yesterdays did come into effect, opening market operations with increased liquidity within the system, which easy some of the concerns, the seven-day repurchase rate increased over the past week. It dipped to 344bps after the central bank auctioned off 29BLN of China Yuan for the seven-day reverse-repurchase agreements.
Today the USDJPY pair pushed back over into the 104.00 levels breaking the 104.40 at one point in the overnight trading. Today’s support comes in at 103.87 while resistance at 104.77 levels.
The Aussie Dollar is holding well above the .8900 level. Today resistance comes to play at 0.8956 while today’s support levels.
Please note our offices will be closing today at 3:30pm today, and all offices will be on holiday schedules, on behalf of everyone here at Goldium FX let me take this opportunity to wish all clients a very Merry Christmas, even if you do not celebrate the holiday enjoy your time with your families and friends.
Trading Range Today:

  • USD/CAD: 1.0580-1.0650
  • EUR/CAD: 1.4500-1.4560
  • GBP/CAD: 1.7350-1.7420
  • CAD/JPY: 98.00- 98.40
  • AUD/CAD: .9460-.9480

by Goldium FX Team

December 23, 2013

The Greenback opening a lot softer this morning as speculators begin to rake in their profits from the massive long USD positions that were held prior the Federal Reserve announced they will begin this January 2014 the 10 BLN tapering of the stimulus program last week. Overnight market movers were USDJPY pair dropping to trade at 103.80, EURUSD traded higher at 1.3695 and the Pound also rose to trading at 1.6365 levels. Ahead of this Christmas holiday, we should continue to experience some enhanced volatility within the next few trading hours.

The Loonie perhaps the biggest market mover overnight as it was able to rally over 100 pips from its high near 1.0700 levels last week, speculator and investors who were exceedingly shorting the Canadian Dollars have started to cash in those buy back positions and the effects result USDCAD pair has started to soften significantly. The Canadian Dollar will weaken into the New Year so these dips under the 1.0600 levels are perfect opportunity to buy US Dollars.

Today we have some secondary US data and from Canada side of boarder the October GDP.
Trading Range Today:

  • USD/CAD: 1.0560-1.0630
  • EUR/CAD: 1.4500-1.4560
  • GBP/CAD: 1.7310-1.7380
  • CAD/JPY: 97.75- 98.40
  • AUD/CAD: .9440-.9490

by Goldium FX Team

December 20, 2013

Slightly in the positive territory this morning for the North American futures, data from Canada as well US side, Canadian Inflations number expected at 0.1% M.M for November, October Retail Sales expected at 0.2%. Main data from US will be Q3 GDP expected at 3.6% annualised.
USDCAD now trading just under the 1.0700 levels rebounding from 1.0730, and will most likely stays in these remaining ranges for rest of days of 2013, support 1.0640 for today and topside resistance at 1.0715.
The Euro trading softer despite stronger than expected German Consumer Confidence numbers, coming in at 7.6 vs. 7.4, and the French Manufacturing Confidence data at 100 vs. 99. EURUSD pair is trading around the mid 1.3600, after early trading lower 1.3627 levels. Today’s support will be lower end of 1.3624, while topside resistance coming in at 1.3690.
The Pound is also trading weaker, after news of conflicting data, first there was a decline in Consumer Confidence at -13 vs. -11, counter off by GDP for Q3 at 0.8% in as expected, consumer spending making up majority of the gains in GDP. The Pound trading at the lower end of 1.6300 levels, as low as 1.6320, the pair mostly likely will test the next support at 1.6307 and today resistance comes in at 1.6400.

The Bank of Japan releasing Monetary Policy decision, stating the diversity between Japan and the Feds, are by maintain record stimulus through expanding the monetary base to 60-70trillion Japanese Yen. The USDJPY is trading firmly, breaking 104.50 levels in overnight trading. Resistance topside is 104.72, and with lower levels support coming in at 103.89.
Australian Dollar relatively unchanged from yesterday against the greenback nearing the .8850-.8860 levels; today technical support level to watch for is the 0.8835, topside resistances at 0.8905.
Trading Range Today:

  • USD/CAD is 1.0650-1.0740
  • CAD/JPY is 97.20- 98.00
  • AUD/CAD is .9480-.9535
  • EUR/CAD is 1.4540-1.4650
  • GBP/CAD is 1.7440-1.7520

by Goldium FX Team

December 19, 2013

Flat morning for North American futures, after yesterday announcements the Feds deciding to slow down the pace of stimulus by 10BLN a month starting January 2014, as positive signs for a US recovery is on its way, any further reductions on stimulus would be based on further economics improvement. The greenback did weaken on that announcement, but rebound relatively strong across all boards such as the Euro, Yen, Aussie, and significantly higher against the Canadian finally breaking through 2013 highs, as high as 1.0728. Later today we have some US data, with Initial Jobless Claims, and then followed by Existing Home Sales. USDCAD support 1.0635 for today and topside resistance at 1.0745.
The Euro above the 1.38 level, but not enough traction to break through 1.3830; 2013 highs, despite coming out with positive news on Spanish bond, where Spain was able to auction off 10-year bonds at an average yield of 4.098%, lowest yield since May 2010. Support at lower end of 1.3635, while topside resistance 1.3830.
The Sterling is performing much stronger than the Euro today, breaking higher end of 1.6300 levels, and finding traction off stronger Retail Sales coming in at 0.4% vs. 0.3% exp. MoM. The mail levels to watch for the GBPUSD pair are resistances at 1.6495 and support at 1.6275.
The JPY was trading weaker post Federal Reserve announcement, at 104.00 then trading as high as 104.36 levels. Cautions to traders, we are seeing the Yen breaking into levels that we haven’t seen for about 5 years for the pair. Today’s support for the pair USDJPY coming in at 103.12 and topside resistance comes in at 104.91 levels.
Australian Dollar was also affected from yesterdays Fed announcements pushing it towards 0.8823 in the overnight trading, weakest levels against the greenback since 2010 August. Key support level to watch for is the 0.8805, topside resistances at 0.8930.
Trading Range Today:

  • USD/CAD is 1.0675-1.0750
  • CAD/JPY is 97.00- 97.50
  • EUR/CAD is 1.4620-1.4700
  • GBP/CAD is 1.7510-1.7600
  • AUD/CAD is .9440-.9510

by Goldium FX Team

December 17, 2013

This morning North American futures a tad in the positive zone, today we have US November CPI expected 1.3% YoY, then Q3 Current Account Balance reading with a slight increase to $100.2BLN. In Canada we have October’s Manufacturing Sales expecting some negativity at
-0.3%. The USDCAD pair relatively unchanged under the 1.0600 levels, at 1.0595 with resistance at 1.0605 and support 1.0563 for today.
Europe equity markets slightly trading in the negative zone, in defiance of strong German investor confidences. ZEW coming strongest since April 2006 at 62 vs 55 expected, and CPI numbers for November coming in as expected at 0.9%. All focus will be for tomorrows Feds meeting, should we see a taper which could be negative effect on the Euro. The EURUSD pair is just trading around the 1.3750, with next resistances at 1.3835 and support coming in at the lower 1.3720 levels.
The Pound softer trading even after November’s CPI Core coming in as expected at 1.8%, still at the lower end 1.6300 levels, seems to also be waiting Feds meeting tomorrow, the GBPUSD in a tight range with pair resistances levels at 1.6355 and support at 1.6250.
The Japanese Yen still maintaining close ranges to 103.00 levels vs the US Dollars. Countering off some negativity with the softer tone from Europe, today’s support for the pair USDJPY coming in at 102.65 and topside resistance comes in at 103.35 levels.
The Aussie Dollar still under pressure from December RBA meeting, stating they would like to see the Aussie lower, along with the Australian government setting a bearish tone with the budget deficit will widen to 47BLN this 2013. The government cutting back some spending in coincide with decline revenues and the slowing mining sector. The Australian’s economy is definitely up for some challenges for 2014. Currently trading at .8915 vs the US Dollar, with lower end support coming in at 0.8800 and topside resistance at 0.8970.
Trading Range Today:

  • USD/CAD is 1.0560-1.0620
  • CAD/JPY is 97.00- 97.40
  • AUD/CAD is .9420-.9450
  • EUR/CAD is 1.4530-1.4580
  • GBP/CAD is 1.7200-1.7260

by Goldium FX Team

December 16, 2013

This morning North American futures opening to a positive trading day, This morning we have US Empire Manufacturing expected reading of 0.5, then Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers. USDCAD pair relatively unchanged just under the 1.0600 levels with resistance at 1.0645 and support 1.0550 for today.
Europe markets deflecting off negative dispositions from Asia, with equities market trading in positive zones. Strong PMI Manufacturing December numbers released at 52.7 vs. 51.9, lighting increase of risk appetite across all the board. The EURUSD pair is just trading under 1.3800, with next resistances at 1.3840 and support coming in at the lower 1.3700 levels.
The Sterling still losing steam further in overnight trading lower end 1.6300 levels more concerns with the overheated house markets. December Data reports for housing prices rose 5.4% YoY vs. 4% previous. The GBPUSD pair resistances levels lower than previous last week ending at 1.6355 and support at 1.6250.
The Yen Main data released overnight was the Tankan Manufacturers Index coming at slightly stronger for Q4 at 16 vs. 15. The Japanese Yen strengthen a tad moving back under 103.00 levels. Support for the pair USDJPY coming in at 102.80 and topside resistance comes in at 103.75 levels.
The Aussie Dollar still weak pushing towards lower end of .8900 levels, as low as .8927 vs. the greenback with lower end support coming in at 0.8880 and topside resistance at 0.8985.
Trading Range Today:

  • USD/CAD is 1.0550-1.0620
  • CAD/JPY is 97.00- 97.50
  • AUD/CAD is .9450-.9500
  • EUR/CAD is 1.4570-1.4650
  • GBP/CAD is 1.7270-1.7340

by Goldium FX Team

December 13, 2013

Today the North American futures opening to a positive morning, with the US PPI expected 0.8% YoY for November. The USDCAD remains in tight range after moving back towards the mid 1.0600 levels, resistance seen at 1.0715 and downside support at 1.0580.
A rally over in the European markets with all major equity in positive zones. No significant data announcements made today, the Euro weaken to lower side of the 1.3700 levels, could be losing some tractions over the past week. Downside support are 1.3700 and topside resistance at 1.3790.
The Sterling might be due in for a correction losing steam further in overnight trading breaking under 1.63 level along with Housing concerns mounting causing a shaky market, we might see a the bubble overheating. Data reports for November with house prices climbing 0.6% and the Bank of England curbing mortgage incentives in an effort to balance the situation. The GBPUSD pair resistances levels seen at 1.6405 and support at 1.6265.
The Yen ignored the better expected Industrial Production numbers at 1% vs. 0.5%, prior data for October, weakened to lowest levels since 2007 vs. the greenback, coming in high as 103.92 levels. Topside resistances coming in at 104.11 and support at 102.70, decent buying levels low 102.00 levels.
The Australia’s Governor Glenn Stevens statements lead to further weakness in the Aussie, trading at the lower end of .8900, the Governor commented a “.8500 level” is closer to where the Aussie should be trading at vs. the greenback, expectation for some more weakness heading into 2014 due to the slowing mining and manufacturing. For AUDUSD we have resistance at 0.9040 and lower support at .8880 levels.
Trading Range Today:

  • USD/CAD is 1.0625-1.0700
  • CAD/JPY is 96.60- 97.50
  • AUD/CAD is .9495-.9530
  • EUR/CAD is 1.4600-1.4670
  • GBP/CAD is 1.7310-1.7380

by Goldium FX Team

December 12, 2013

This morning all focus is on US Retail Sales expected reading of 0.6%. MoM, together along with US Initial Jobless Claims, expected 320k. The Canadian Dollar was strengthen overnight moving back under 1.06 level as low as 1.0561, with support from crude oil, 97.63 a barrel. Expect USDCAD pair staying in range of 1.0500s to low to mid 1.0600s levels until the next Fed meeting.
In the European trading session all major equity markets trading in negative zone, bond trading higher in secondary market from comments from ECB’s Peter Praet, mentioning banks could reduce purchasing of sovereign debt in effort of lowering their risk. Euro still maintaining strengthen even with the negative Industrial Production numbers for October at -1.1% vs. 0.3% MoM. Resistance for the EURUSD pair comes in at 1.3820 and support at 1.3750.
The UK and Sterling gaining back some grounds from yesterday loss, UK Chancellor Osborne has given his green light to the BoE’s new addition policy making based on signs that the UK economy is picking and finding some traction. The Pound moves back towards 1.6400 levels and resistance at 1.6440 and with support at 1.6325.
The USDJPY pair losing grounds despite weaker equities, the pair moving back towards the higher end of the 102.00 levels with resistance comes in at 102.85 and with support at 102.07.
From the Australia we saw positive release on the job numbers at 21k job for November, with large gains of full-time jobs with 15k. However reports also out of Australia, General Motors closing down their production plant reason being effects of slowing Australian economy and together with rising Aussie making products less competitive, Aussie resistance coming in at 0.9120 and support 0.9012.
Trading Range Today:

  • USD/CAD is 1.0560-1.0640
  • CAD/JPY is 96.70- 97.20
  • AUD/CAD is .9500-.9580
  • EUR/CAD is 1.4560-1.4630
  • GBP/CAD is 1.7330-1.7400

by Goldium FX Team

December 11, 2013

The CAD continues its recent highs from the 1.0700 levels last week to lower today at 1.0595, Bank of Montreal with their currency prediction are seeing USDCAD testing back at the 1.0700 in the next month’s time, they are also predicting level of 1.1000 by the mid-2014.This would be a good time to consider hedging some USD to protect yourself and entering any level below the 1.0600. No economic data out today, expect to see narrow trading range and or a set up back towards the 1.0700 levels.
With only significant economic data from Germany today we saw CPI come in at 1.3% YoY as expected. Risk appetite is evident within European bond markets, bond yields down in secondary market, the Spanish 5-Yr yield reaching lowest level in over 7 years, trading at 2.52%. EURUSD pair trading shy of the 1.38 levels yesterday and trading back toward the mid 1.3700 overnight. Resistance for EURUSD comes in at 1.3825 and support at 1.3730
No significant data from the UK today, the Pound is trend lower territories this morning moving back towards the 1.6300 levels, looking to test the next support levels at 1.6350 and resistance topside of 1.6450.
The USDJPY pair trending lower as many investors looking for safety with the negative correlation between the Nikkei and Yen, moving lower to mid 102.00 levels against the greenback. Support for pair seen at 102.15 and topside resistance 103.30.
The Aussie was affected by Chinese data coming in with a firm release, despite seeing Consumer Confidence for December at -4.8% vs. 1.9% expected. The AUDUSD pair still managing above the 91.00 levels against the greenback, with topside resistance coming in at .9187 and lower support at 0.9095.
Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0560-1.0630 ___________ CAD/JPY is 96.50- 97.00

EUR/CAD is 1.4550-1.4620 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7310-1.7380

AUD/CAD is .9640-.9675

by Goldium FX Team

December 10, 2013

This morning the USD/CAD trading pair marginally weaker this morning, currently hovering around lower range of 1.6020, with not much major data releasing out of either side of the boarder until this Thursday we will see U.S Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims and in Canadian Governor Poloz will also be speaking at in the afternoon. On Friday we see the U.S Producer Price Index will be released.

This morning we have ECB Governor Draghis speech on future ECB policies, as speculator waiting on the side line to see if he will cut rates into the negative side. Overnight we had French Industrial Production released, worse than expected at -0.3% vs 0.1%. The Italian Industrial Production was also released beating expectations with 0.5% vs 0.2% expected. The Euro continues pushing up to 1.3750, resistance comes in at 1.3778 and Support comes in at 1.3706.

In the UK Manufacturing Production numbers released as expected of 0.4%, mean while Industrial Production rising second month in October, at 0.4%. Resistance comes in at 1.6467 and while support at 1.6357.

The Greenback managing to extend some light gains against the Yen reaching a 5-year high as Chinese Industrial Production came in less than expected. Nikki also down 0.25% also effects from China Industrial Production, rising less than estimated in November coming at 10.0 vs 10.1 expected, Retail Sales stronger than expected at 13.7 vs 13.2.

The Australian dollar marginally strengthened to .9125 after dipping below .9000 levels last week. Resistance comes in at .9145 and support for the pair seen at .9074.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0610-1.0680 ___________ CAD/JPY is 96.50- 96.95

EUR/CAD is 1.4600-1.4670 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7460-1.7580

AUD/CAD is .9670-.9735

by Goldium FX Team

December 9, 2013

This morning we have Canadian Housing Starts for November expected at 195K. Narrow rangers over trading for the Canadian dollar, despite better than expected employment numbers released last Friday from Canada, it still remains undermined due to it majority all part time workers. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz has withdrawn any tightening bias several weeks prior the Canadian dollar has notably underperformed against major currency.

Some discouraging data from Europe affecting equity markets, the Euro shrugging off all of it. Germany trade surplus weaken to 17.9bln vs. 20.4bln, Industrial Production out of Europe’s largest economy weakened for October at -1.2% vs. 0.7% expected and softer Investor Confidence from Euro-Zone at 8 vs. 10 for October, the Euro was able to hit six week high against the greenback despite softer German industrial production.

The Japanese Yen has weakened with increasing speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve could begin tapering this December. Chinese Yuan strengthened due to trade data showing exports had a positive surged to 12.7% vs 7.0% y/y and the Nikkei reaching positive to the China data and weaker the Yen.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0630-1.0680 ___________ CAD/JPY is 96.50- 96.95

EUR/CAD is 1.4590-1.4690 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7400-1.7480

AUD/CAD is .9670-.9735

by Goldium FX Team

December 6, 2013

This morning employment numbers to be released both US and Canada. Also from US the non-farm payrolls expected at 185k for November, Unemployment Rate expected to tick down to 7.2%. Any stronger data would lead to strengthen case for tapering to begin, could potentially be as early as this month. Canada we are expected to see the Unemployment Rate unchanged at 6.9%, and a12K jobs added for November. USD/CAD hovers around the mid 1.0600 levels, expect 1.0706 a three year high as the “resistance” support coming in at 1.0620.

The European markets majority trading in the positive zone, somewhat disappointing numbers from Germany today, where Factory Orders MoM at -2.2% vs. -1% expected, adding continued concerns for the Euro-Zone. The Euro manage to struggle of the negative German data and continues for higher grounds, reaching high as 1.3678 in overnight and support at 1.3550.

In the UK, the Sterling pushing for higher grounds mid 1.6300s vs. the USD, November House Prices raised 1.1% vs. 0.8% expected, verifying recent decisions from Bank of England removing mortgage incentives to lenders, as an effort to balance the UK housing market. Resistance levels are 1.6390 and support coming in at 1.6288.

The Yen has moved back towards the 102 levels, no major breakout anticipated in today’s data. Resistance levels today are at 103.20 and support coming at 101.85.

The AUD moving up towards higher grounds near the mid 90.00 levels vs. the USD, finding support along with Copper contracts up 04.%, trading at $3.28 per pound. Resistance topside for AUD/USD comes in at 0.9093 and support at .9015.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0620-1.0670 ___________ CAD/JPY is 97.50- 96.50

EUR/CAD is 1.4500-1.4590 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7350-1.7450

AUD/CAD is .9580-.9685

by Goldium FX Team

December 5, 2013

This morning we have US GDP numbers for Q3, expected 3.1% annualized, US Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 am, followed by Canadian building permits for October expected 1%, CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, and US Factory Orders. The CAD has been confined to slimmer ranges overnight and looks to be pausing after The Bank of Canada policy statement. The BoC made no directional statement on future decisions of interest rates but showed concerns about the weak inflation numbers. Inflation is below the BoC’s radar this is a sign interest rates will remain low for longer period of time.

The European Central Bank decision expected to hold rates. President Draghis press conference at 8:30 this morning we will understand of the bank’s current positions on future interest rates, the market is anticipates Draghis speech. Support for EUR/USD at 1.3545 and with resistance at 1.3620.

The Sterling bounced back from trading weaker ahead of the Bank of England interest rate announcements; leaving rates unchanged at 0.5% and kept Asset Purchase Facility 375BLN pounds as expected. The Pound was sidling while waiting the European Central Bank announcements is expected to hold interest rates at 0.25% with the statement to follow at 8:30am which will probably highlight the separations between the economies of the Euro-Zone.

In UK and the Sterling Pound given back a little bit of gains this week, PMI Services coming in for November at 60 vs. 62. Next resistance hovers at 1.6435 and support are 1.6345

The Yen strengthened for third day of trading, while stocks are under pressure with volatility on the rise, the Nikkei, closing 1.5% down. The JPY had broken under 102.00 trading levels, support now is 101.30 and topside resistances 102.85.

After disappoint October trade numbers the Australian Dollar still under pressure, the deficit gap widen to 529MLN previous 284MLN, highlighting problems the Australian export sector is definitely facing against. AUD/USD hovering at 89.00 cent levels briefly. Support comes to play at 0.8975 and topside resistance at 0.9115.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0630-1.0685 ___________ CAD/JPY is 95.50- 96.00

EUR/CAD is 1.4450-1.4550 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7385-1.7470

AUD/CAD is .9600-.9650

by Goldium FX Team

December 4, 2013

This morning we have ADP Employment Change, an indication to this Friday’s Nonfarm numbers, expected +170k. Than trade numbers from US and Canadian Trade, than US New Home Sales expected at 429k. And then the Bank of Canada rate decision, the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, pay attention to any statement from BoC. USD/CAD around the mid 1.0600 levels, any more bearish statements from the central bank could lead to further weakness in the Loonie, and a test break into the 1.0700 levels. Resistance comes in at 1.0693, and support at 1.0630.

Some positive news out of the European markets, PMI Services stronger than expected at 51.2 vs. 50.9 expected, and GDP Q3 came at 0.1% QoQ. Bond markets from the Italian up 5 bps, Spanish 2 bps and Portuguese 6 bps (10 year), the EUR/USD still struggling to break the 1.3600 levels resistance at 1.3625 and support at 1.3537.

In UK and the Sterling Pound given back a little bit of gains this week, PMI Services coming in for November at 60 vs. 62. Next resistance hovers at 1.6435 and support are 1.6345

The Yen continuing around the mid 102.00 levels, with the weakness in the Nikkei, down 2.17% overnight is giving a tad support to the JPY. Resistance seen at 103.20 and support comes in at 101.85.

Negative tone overnight with economic release from Australia, Australian economy Q3 expanded less than forecast at 0.6% vs. 0.7% QoQ, possibility we could see additional monetary action from the RBA. A decline in Household Consumption coming at 0.4% vs. 0.7%, definitely concerning for the RBA. AUD/USD is depreciating to lowest levels since September, and trading overnight towards the .9000 levels.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0650-1.0680 ___________ CAD/JPY is 95.95- 96.35

EUR/CAD is 1.4415-1.4475 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7410-1.7440

AUD/CAD is .9600-.9650

by Goldium FX Team

December 3, 2013

This morning out of the US we will see ISM Manufacturing for November, expected at 55.1, along with the Construction Spending for the month of October, expected 0.4%. USD/CAD above 1.06, trading at 1.0630 levels, in London session we saw the pair reached 1.0653.

Negative territory European markets, despite stronger European PMI for November at 52.7 vs. 52.5 expected, an unexpected decline in Spanish PMI, coming in at 48.6 vs. 51.1 expected and the Spanish 10-year trading higher on the secondary market, up 2.4bps.

The Sterling Pound soared overnight following stronger than expected U.K. Manufacturing PMI rising to 58.4 vs. 56.1 for November much higher than the expectations from the previous months revised 56.50 levels. The Pound continues to outperform major currencies as UK looks the most likely the first country to raise interest rates, the Sterling trading new highs for the year reaching the 1.6441 levels.

The Yen under pressure overnight and is closing in on USD/JPY 103.00 level after the release on the official China Purchasing Manufacturing Index for November at 51.4 unchanged from the October’s 18 month high. Capital flows are moving out of Japan as global economic growth is steadily building up and looking for a safe haven.

AUD/USD hovering around the mid 0.9140 relatively unresponsive to the Chinese numbers and better than expected Building Approvals for October coming in at -1.8% vs. -5% expected. All focus will be on the RBA minutes meeting, the central bank expecting to leave rates unchanged, however highlighting their concerns of the stronger AUD. Support at 0.9060 and with resistance at 0.9185.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0600-1.0650 ___________ CAD/JPY is 96.25- 96.85

EUR/CAD is 1.4370-1.4440 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7380-1.7450

AUD/CAD is .9670-.9750

by Goldium FX Team

December 2, 2013

Today the economic release of ISM New York at 9:45 am, USD/CAD pair remains unchanged from yesterday, trading around the mid levels 1.0650’s, upcoming next few days release of some important data such as the US GDP Thursday, and job numbers from Canada and US on Friday, which we could see increased volatility in this pair, next resistance levels at 1.06660 and support coming in at 1.0620.

With the Increased in risk aversion in European markets, the main data release saw PPI MoM for October at -0.5% vs. -0.2% expected. EUR/USD hovering just under the 1.3600 levels, sellers should enter at break back into the 1.3600’s levels. Resistance comes in at 1.3600 and with support at 1.3400.

UK and the Pound is trading under the1.6400’s vs. The US, reaching its strongest levels since summer of 2011. PMI Construction exceeded expectation for the month of November at 62.6 vs. 59 expected. Next levels topside resistance are 1.6480, and support comes in at 1.6320.

The JPY rebounded nicely against the USD after spending most of yesterday above 103.00’s levels despite a data release showing the Money Base increased YoY to 52.5% vs. 45.8% for November. Buyer should be ready to enter if we move back into the 101.00’s levels, with 101.85 as support and resistances at 103.21.

Australian central bank left rates unchanged at 2.5%. The central bank also made reference again stating the AUD remains uncomfortably high. Last week the IMF stated that the currency overvalued at 10%. Other main news from Australia in the overnight was Retail Sales for the month of October better than expected coming in at 0.5% vs. 0.4% expected. The reaction in the currency markets have relatively ignored, with the AUD/USD resistance comes in at 0.9150 and support coming in at 0.9075.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0635-1.0665 ___________ CAD/JPY is 96.10- 96.65

EUR/CAD is 1.440-1.4490 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7460-1.7510

AUD/CAD is .9675-.9740

by Goldium FX Team

November 29, 2013

Stock markets are towards a positive opening trading day in North America. The only data today will be a quiet trading day due to Black Friday, Canadian GDP at 8:30 this morning expected at 0.2% MoM, USD/CAD hovering around the 1.0580 levels with 1.0602 the high in recent, Look for 1.0609 to continue to be of significant resistance and support coming in at 1.0570.

Positive fundamentals from The European markets, Unemployment Rate declining to 12.1% vs. 12.2%, Euro-Zone CPI came in at 0.9% vs. 0.8% expected, lent a boost to the Euro and pushing it through the 1.36 level, with resistance at 1.3630, and support comes in at 1.3575.

UK and the Sterling Pound hovering around 1.63 levels, but stalling after softer data out of the UK in the overnight, Mortgage Approvals coming in at 67.7k vs. 68.5k expected, and Net Consumer Credit coming in at 0.5bln vs. 0.7bln expected. Resistance comes in at 1.6375 and with support at 1.6245.

Japan’s session was negative news Jobless Rate remained unchanged at 4%, however missed expectation of 3.9%, and Industrial Production declined 0.5% vs. 2% MoM. USDJPY hovers around the 102.30 level, looking for 103.08 a 2013 high.

The Aussie is trading slightly above positive territory levels of .91 agianst the USD, Private Sector Credit unchanged at 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected, recent cuts by the RBA still haven’t pushing private credit consumption. AUD/USD potentially will break back under 90.00 levels.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0560-1.0635 ___________ CAD/JPY is 96.45- 96.85

EUR/CAD is 1.4385-1.4440 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7250-1.7310

AUD/CAD is 0.9610-0.9660

November 28, 2013

Happy US Thanksgiving Holiday today. A very quiet day is expected. Canadian market is they only open market today with Current Account Balance, slight signs of improvements deficit 14.4BLN from 14.6BLN, the pair flirting all night against the 1.06 levels. Any big movement today we would likely see test higher levels.

This morning the Euro-Zone had stronger inflation data, along with better the expected Economic and Industrial Confidences from Europe help pushing the currency pair above 1.3600 levels. In UK, Bank of England Governor announced that they would end some of the mortgage incentive program for fears that it will create a housing bubble crisis.

Nikkei in Tokyo closing the session up 1.8%, despite poorer Retail Sales from Japan coming in at -1% vs. -0.9% expected, JPY currency trading above the 102.00 levels moving closer to 2013 high.

AUD back to the 91 cent levels on releases of stronger than expected Private Capital Expenditures for Q3 at 3.6% vs. -1.2% expected, the positive impacts seen from RBA recent cuts.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0560-1.0615 ___________ CAD/JPY is 96.45- 96.75

EUR/CAD is 1.4365-1.4430 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7270-1.7330

AUD/CAD is 0.9610-0.9670

by Goldium FX Team

November 27, 2013

Busy day ahead with US Retail sales (OCT), Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, expected at 330k, US Durable Goods Orders, expected -2% at and minutes from last Fed policy meeting. Be prepared for extra volatility today before the US Thanksgiving closure tomorrow.

European markets we have stronger German Consumer Confidence beating expectation of 7.1, coming in at 7.4, highest reading since 2007, along with the government reaching a deal on public sector wage hikes, without tax increases pushing the Euro higher against the US.

UK benefiting from positive data from Europe and stronger growth report pushing the GBP to a 10 month high against US, Private Consumption exceeding expectations of 0.6%, and coming in at 0.8%, rising growth around domestic demand in housing market, the stronger Pound does have an overall negative effect on economy in exports sectors off about 2%.

Asia markets overall negative tone in the overnight trading, the Nikkei down 0.42%, the Japanese equity markets weaken coincided with correlation of a stronger Japanese Yen.
ASX in Sydney also down 0.45% with Australian dollar breaking under the .9100 level vs. USD for the first time since August, statements from Deputy Governor Phillip Lowe repeated last week’s comments from Governor Stevens, highlighting they will likely further adjustments in the Australian Dollar. Only last week, did the IMF highlighted that the Aussie is 10% overvalued.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0550-1.0625 ___________ JPY/CAD is 96.00- 96.75

EUR/CAD is 1.4360-1.4430 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7220-1.7300

AUD/CAD is 0.9602-0.9635

by Goldium FX Team

November 26, 2013

USD consolidates from yesterday gains this morning, main data coming out today at 8:30am US Building Permits, Consumer Confidence Index expected at 72.6 vs 81.2 Pervious, and Fed Manufacturing Index. The CAD stronger in overnight trading due to strength in crude oil, trading up .26% to $94.35/barrel. This pair will probably consolidate until testing year high up at 1.0600 next few days.

Euro mixed overnight trading reacting from comments of the Chinese Central Bank Governor stating the EUR is an important part of the Chinese Central Banks reserve currency, indication the central bank is diversifying from the USD and holding more Euros. Better than expected Italian Consumer Confidence (NOV) coming in at 98.3 vs 97.5 expected. Positive Italian bonds sales. All supporting the Euro, however Euro could be losing steam struggling to break the 1.36s levels.

The Sterling has strengthened overnight pushing back towards the 1.62 levels after BOE Governor Mark Carney testified that growth has picked up in the UK, and the economy is on the track to recovery, although there is still more work to do in the labour market, the central bank will not raise rates until they see the unemployment rate comfortably below the 7% threshold.

Overnight markets Japanese Small Business Confidence with slight improvements for October with little improvement 51.1 vs 50.8. Yen recovering a little as minutes released from last BOJ showed some voting member saw downside risk in the economy.

Aussie continues its downward spiral, trading back towards the 91 cent level, definitely results of weakness in commodity markets.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0510-1.0570 ___________ JPY/CAD is 96.00- 96.50

EUR/CAD is 1.4250-1.4320 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7030-1.7100

by Goldium FX Team

November 25, 2013

USD is stronger this morning as the world is digesting the announcement of Iran’s nuclear project. This morning 9am we have US Pending Homes Sales expected at 1.1%, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activities. USD/CAD should consolidate around the 1.0550 levels before the push to break 1.0609 levels, don’t be surprised if we hit it later this week we could see run towards next levels of resistance at 1.0700 very soon. Any pull back towards 1.0500 levels would be a nice buying position.

Over in Europe we don’t have any significant data being released. However EUR is trading lower on EBC official’s comments stating they are ready to reduce interest rates again if necessary. Economists will debate the negative effects this will have on the economy.

GBP losing some grounds this morning after poor housing data, trading below the 1.6200 levels and trading at 1.6165.

Crude oil has not rebounded on this news of Iran nuclear agreement, in the past Iran has threat blockage supply of freighters through the Strait of Hormuz, about 20% of the world’s oil passing through this strait. The AUD, would benefits from risk appetite is still under pressure, focusing on next week’s RBA meeting, analysts paying attention to the rhetoric from the central bank, especially after some recent comments by the RBA Governor Stevens, who’s quote is open-minded with respect to FX intervention aka currency war.

Meanwhile the USD/JPY continues to trade weaker thus aiding the country’s export economy.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0525-1.0580 ___________ JPY/CAD is 96.15- 96.60

EUR/CAD is 1.4250-1.4330 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7060-1.7130

by Goldium FX Team

November 22, 2013

Canadian CPI and Canadian Retail Sales (SEPT) due this morning, expect some volatility to the pair already an active morning. CAD finally breaking out of ranges 1.05 levels, and quickly moved higher this morning. USD buys should be looking at 1.0500 as decent buying levels for now. Next level to watch for is 2013 high of 1.0600 levels.

USD is mixed this morning weaker against the Euro but stronger against Pound. UK investors’ hoping UK interest rates rising sooner than expected, but the BOE policy maker stated will not be raising interest rates anytime soon. This statement pushed GBP/USD lower as the expectation that Pound strength may be overdone soon.

European markets out with the positive German data earlier this week, this morning reading for Q3 GDP as expected at 0.3%, Business Confidence rose best levels since mid-2011, the only disappointing Retail Sales from Italy, where MoM came in -0.3% vs. 0.1% expected.

Japan with the recent weakness of Yen continued overnight trading as USD/JPY hit a new recent high of 101.30’s levels, testing to trade higher in the coming weeks.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0500-1.0570 ___________ JPY/CAD is 95.70-96.30

EUR/CAD is 1.4220-1.4300 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.7050-1.7182

by Goldium FX Team

November 21, 2013

Yesterday U.S CPI came in as expected 0.1%, Retail better than expected 0.4% then 0.1%. This morning the U.S data will be Producer Price Index (OCT), expecting -0.2%, along with Unemployment claims. The USD largest gain this morning against the YEN and now trading just under 101.00, BOJ continual to weaken their currency with massive amounts of stimulus into the economy, 70 Trillion Yen a year.

The Aussie fell to 2 month low, as China Manufacturing PMI came worst then expected 50.40 vs 50.8. International Monetary Fund stated the AUD is overvalued by 10%. The RBA also taking measurement to intervene into the currency markets to ensure the AUD remains weak, along with having cutting interest rates to 2.50% over the last 2 years.

Over in the European session, Manufacturing PMI released, France coming in shorter than expected at 48.8 vs 51, Germany expected at 52.5 vs 52.0, European Manufacturing came in as expected. Yesterday the Euro was at 1.34 levels, since then gaining some ground currently 1.3455, resistance 1.3540 and support 1.3376.

The Sterling three-week high against the USD as speculation of BOE will raise its interest rate earlier than it forecasted. Resistance 1.6159 and supports at 1.6069.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0435-1.0500 ___________ JPY/CAD is 95.60-96.50

EUR/CAD is 1.4070-1.4150 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.6875-1.6950

by Goldium FX Team

November 20, 2013

Yesterday Chairman Bernanke indicated the interest rate will stay near zero for a longer time after the Central Bank’s debt purchases end and possibly after unemployment falls target rate of 6.5%. Today’s data from the U.S will be releasing their Core CPI along with Retail Sales both are expected to come in at 0.1%. Then we have Existing Home Sales for the U.S and lastly FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released.

CAD has been confined to narrow trading range lately; we may get a breakout Friday morning with the release of CPI and Retail Sales. We still very much in favour a move higher above 1.0500 levels just seems to be taking bit longer. Decent buying levels should be considered at the 1.0450 levels.

Austrian government officials commenting they would need weaker currency to improve exporting sector causing the AUD losing grounds overnight trading, UK’s GBP showing some stronger after the BOE policy meeting showed that all members voted to keep rates and stimulus at current levels. Analysts believe UK economy is gaining momentum and BOE will be first of Central Banks to raise interest rates.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0425-1.0480 ___________ JPY/CAD is 95.40-96.00

EUR/CAD is 1.4120-1.4200 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.6860-1.6950

by Goldium FX Team

November 19, 2013

Quiet trading night for the USD, after minutes BOA meeting showed there would not be any change to the interest rates policy, the AUD which jumped to a high of .9440 against the USD, the AUD also got a bit of support from the Chinese announcement that they would be loosen the the Yuan to float more freely, this was part of the economic reform announcement that they announced yesterday.

EUR is marginally stronger this morning from reports the German ZEW confidence report came in better than expected, GBP a little bit strengthen as well but really is just range trading at the moment.

USD/CAD seems to be stuck in this sideway range of 1.0420-1.0480 at the moment, with little on the horizon to give it any direction. The only important Canadian Data is the CPI and Retail Sales report due out on Friday; we could be stuck in the range for awhile now. I think breaking the 1.0500 levels may take a while to get there.

Trading Range Today:

USD/CAD is 1.0420-1.0490 ___________ JPY/CAD is 95.40-96.00

EUR/CAD is 1.4070-1.4150 ___________ GBP/CAD is 1.6770-1.6850

by Goldium FX Team

November 18, 2013

Mixed US overnight markets as equity and currency markets still digest Yellen’s remarks sustaining the stimulus. USD/CAD has moved back to the lower levels of 1.04, after failing to rally further strength above 1.05 levels. It currently hovers around 1.0415 levels; today’s expected range for the pair is 1.0390-1.0460.

European equity markets trading in the green, we saw the European Trade Balance come in slightly weaker at 13.1BLN vs 14.5BLN than expected. Greece after this weekend’s large protest of the IMF and EU meeting discussing Greece bailout plan the EUR/USD moving back towards 1.35’s levels. Support 1.3450, topside 1.3525. EUR/CAD range is 1.4050-1.4120. GBP relatively the same since Friday, just above the 1.61 levels topside resistances 1.6150 and support 1.6065. GBP/CAD range is 1.6750-16820.

AUD/USD remaining pretty firm at the .9400 levels, with support .9280 and topside .9420, USD/JPY slightly weaker this morning back towards the 100’s levels still remaining to pusher higher levels into 100.50 and 1.0120. CAD/JPY range is 95.65-96.20 today.

by Goldium FX Team

November 15, 2013

Futures markets opening in positive positions this morning with US Industrial Production, reading of 0.2%, Canada with Manufacturing Sales released, forecasting 0.5%. Yesterday Janet Yellen’s testimony, stated she will maintain monetary stimulus until a fully recovered economy, concerned about creating as asset bubble. USD/CAD did not stained the break through levels of the 1.05s, closing lower at the end of the day, and into the overnight trading. Todays expected range is 1.0430-1.0500.

European markets slightly more positive, the only economic data was Euro-Zone CPI YoY (OCT) at 0.7%. EUR/USD hovers around the mid 1.34s; today EUR/USD range is 1.3380-1.3500, EUR/CAD range is 1.4060-1.4130. GBP/USD range 1.6000-1.6125, GBP/CAD range is 1.6800-1.6880.

Nikkei up 1.95%, the JPY continued to weaken coinciding with the decrease in risk aversion, with the USD/JPY reaching as high as 100.43, next levels to watch are 100.50, then 100.80, downside support at 99.40, then 98.75, currently trading at 95.64 CAD/JPY.

AUD/USD slight changed from yesterday continuing around the 0.9350 levels, looking for support of increase risk appetite in global equity and commodity markets, AUD/USD range .9250-.9380.

Have a AWESOME weekend!

by Goldium FX Team

November 14, 2013

This morning we have some economic data from US with Initial Jobless Claims expected 300K, US Trade balance expected a decline to -39BLN and Canadian Trade Balance expected minor increase to -1BLM. Fed Chair Nominee, Janet Yellen will give testimony to the US Senate, pleading her case why she should take over as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve. She will continue to maintain the current stimulus until she sees significant improvement. USD/CAD has improving overnight breaking the 1.05’s levels, we looking for a volatile today. Expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0470-1.0550

Euro tad weaker after disappointing growth numbers on the mainland, highlighting a slowdown in Europe, French economy contracting, as GDP for Q3 came in at -0.1% vs. 0% expected, then German Q3 growth numbers came in at 0.3% vs. 0.7% October. Caution over Yellen’s comments at 10 am this morning, she could be more dovish than Bernanke, then we could see some weakness in the USD, especially against the Euro. Todays expected range for the EUR/CAD is 1.4080-1.4150

The GBP is relatively unchanged from yesterday despite seeing weaker than expected Retail Sales data, MoM coming in at -0.7% vs. 0% expected. Yesterday we saw Bank of England highlight that interest rates would remain low until the bank was comfortable and certain that there is recovery in progress. Expected range for GBP/CAD is 1.6810-1.6880

Yen was weakened and traded back into the 100’s level vs. USD in the overnight, the first time since mid- September, despite some strong Q3 GDP data at 0.5% vs. 0.4% expected. Next level now is at 100.45 levels on the topside and support at 99.00-97.50. Today’s expected range for CAD/JPY 94.80-95.50.

by Goldium FX Team

November 13, 2013

This morning we have a relatively light trading data coming from North America, US Mortgage Applications being released. The Loonie was unable to gain any position from yesterdays afternoon’s economic update from Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, suggesting he is on path to eliminating the defect by 2015-2016. USD/CAD just shy of 1.05’s levels continual weakest while coincide with drop in crude oil. Now close to $93/barrel. Today’s range for USD/CAD is 1.0460-1.0520

Once again GBP being the big mover in overnight with positive job numbers, Unemployment Rate dropped as expected to 7.6%, people filing for Jobless Claims (OCT) less than expected at -41.7K vs -.30K. Unemployment will likely reach the 7% threshold in 3rd quarter of 2015 or sooner. The GBP/USD shot up almost 1 percent after this announcement. Today’s range for GBP is 1.6720-1.6780.

EUR losing grounds this morning poorer than expected Industrial Production Numbers (SEP) coming in at -0.5% vs. -0.3% expected. EU leaders are focusing attention on rising youth unemployment in the zone, which is high as 50% in some country. The EUR is just above the 1.34 levels, with support levels at 1.3375 then 1.3320 and resistance coming into play at 1.3475. Today’s range for EUR/CAD is 1.4050-1.4120

Looks like another quiet trading day, I’m not expecting any crazy movement today, however I’m still waiting on the USD/CAD breaking the 1.0500 at some point…. waiting for my fireworks.

by Goldium FX Team

November 12, 2013

USD definitely stronger this morning, breaking the 1.05’s levels, expectation of more strong economic data out of the US will lead to earlier tapering of QE by the Feds. We may see new year- high above the 1.06’s levels in the coming weeks; CAD has able to pull back some gains against the EUR and GBP, benefitting from overnight weakness. No data out today, two speeches by the Fed members Kocherlatokta on Monetary Policy and Lockhart on the Economy. Overall we see USD strengthen against EUR, JPP, GBP and further declines of the crude oil, with .45%, trading 94.71/barrel. Today’s expected range for the CAD/USD is 1.0470-1.0540.

GBP tanking across the board, CPI (OCT) coming in weakest level for the year at 2.2% vs. 2.5%, leading the GBP to weaken to its lowest levels vs. USD since September, trading as low as 1.5859. A breaking thought 1.58 levels; we could see further decline towards the 1.5720-30 levels. Today expected range for GBP/CAD is 1.6650-1.6720

From Australian Dollar NAB Business confidences softer then last month coming in at 5 vs. 12 expected, causing AUD/USD to 93 levels, lowest since September. Support at .9270-.9390-.9465 resistance.

Disappointing data coming out of Japan, Consumer confidences Index came in at 41.5 vs 45.5 and Tertiary Industry Index coming in at -0.2% vs 0.2% expected. The Japanese economy continues to face upcoming difficulties; breaking the 99.40 market in overnight trading trying to gain traction for the 100.00 levels we might see this in the next few days.

GOLD: XAU/USD seeing a steady decline since late October high of 1361.45 vs today currently 1280.28, breaking the first support of levels of 1291.12 next aim is 1250.00 breaking this our attention will be 1215, then 1180 levels, resistance lies at the 1,399.79 level.

by Goldium FX Team

November 8, 2013

This morning job numbers are released both in the US and Canada, non-farm payrolls expected at 120k vs. 148k previous month, with the unemployment rate from the US expected to tick up to 7.3%. Canada we are expected to see 14k new jobs have been created a slight up-tick in unemployment rate to 7%. Strong US numbers should lead to a strong rally of the USD, testing the1.05 levels, however If we see stronger Canadian numbers expect see the numbers drop below 1.04 levels. Expected range for this pair today is 1.0425-1.0525.

Contraction data released from the European. German Trade Balance stronger than expected 20.4bln vs. 15.4bln, was offset by lower French Industrial Production data -0.5% vs. 0.1%. EURUSD hovers around the lower 1.34 levels after yesterday’s ECB announcement, the Central Bank cutting lending rate by .25%. Today supports levels are 1.33- 1.3180, resistance at 1.3535-1.3650. Euro against the CAD range today is 1.4000-1.4100 levels.

The GBP has remained resilient despite lower trade numbers, where the deficit declined to 3.26bln. Support levels 1.6035-1.59 and resistance around the 1.6140 levels. GBP/CAD range is expected today is 1.6780-1.6880 levels.

Despite having positive numbers released from China, the Asia-Pacific markets fished in the reds territory. China trade surplus grew to 31.10bln (OCT) from 15.21bln, exports 5.6% vs 1.7%, overall markets ignored the Chinese numbers. Australian Dollar hovering around the .94 levels, looking to break lower if we see stronger US jobs data coming out. Trading range expected today are .9380-.9480 levels.

by Goldium FX Team

November 7, 2013

The USD relatively flat during overnight trading, awaiting data to be released this morning, Jobless Claims and Q3 GDP to be released softer at 2% vs. 2.5% prior reading. Focus will still be on for tomorrow job numbers to be released both sides of the border. More attention will also be on the Bank of England and European Central Bank this morning. USDCAD just above 1.04 the levels, finding support through crude oil, which is down 8.2%, trading slightly around 95.09 a barrel (up 0.29%). Today’s range for the CAD/USD is 1.0380-1.0450.

European markets are mixed today, with the Bank of England this morning leaving rates unchanged at 0.50% and the asset purchase program at the 375bln a month. GBP/USD has moved lower after testing the 1.61 levels yesterday, with today looking for anywhere close to 1.61. Resistance comes in at 1.6120, followed by 1.6155. Support forming at 1.6000-1.5930. Todays expected range for the CAD against Sterling is 1.6730-1.6800. However the European Central bank has caught the markets off guard dropping interest rates by another 0.25% to 0.25%, causing the EUR losing value now trading 1.3942 levels against the CAD, today expected range for CAD/EUR is 1.3920-1.4020. All focus will be on Draghis press conferences, prepare for an exciting day of trading.

Australia we saw disappointing job numbers, unemployment rate ticked up as expected 0.1% to 5.7%. We are facing a slowing down in the Australian economy and further deterioration of data will increase the chance of RBA continue with easing cycle, the AUD/USD hovering around the .95 level, resistance at .9550-.9630 and Support at .9440 followed by .9400.
The Yen showing signs of testing the 99 range, we could see this soon after stronger US data coming out today and tomorrow (US nonfarm payrolls), resistance 99.40-100 levels and support 97.50-96.90.

by Goldium FX Team

November 6, 2013

Canadian Building Permits we have at 8:30am, then IPM Index at 10am, and US Leading Indicators at 10 am this today. USD/CAD still sideways movement at 1.0435-1.0452, next big movement could be Friday’s job numbers, we expecting a range of 1.05-1.0550, support at 1.0340, then 1.0250-75.

This morning Euro and Pound trading stronger against the USD and a stronger Euro-Zone PMI Services (OCT) at 51.6 vs 50.9 and Composite coming in at 51.9 vs, stronger German Factory Orders for the month of September coming in at 7.9% vs. 5.6%, this off stetted some of the negative data over the past couple of weeks, the Euro-Zone Retail Sales at 0.3% vs. 0.6% YoY. Tomorrow’s ECB announcements at 7:45, Euro supported at 1.3440 and resistance around1.3560. GBP doing fantastic trading stronger this morning, due to the stronger than expected Industrial Production (YoY)(SEP) 2.2% vs. 1.8%, pushing GBP into breaking the 1.61 levels, next resistance at 1.6135- 1.6247.

Nikkei up 0.79% and a softer Yen in the overnight trading, we see the Yen pushing just pass the 98.70 levels although we looking break just pass the 98.80-90 level, then followed by 99.40 before the psychological 100 level comes back into play and support comes in at 97.70- 96.90.

AUD has also rallied in the overnight on the positive in the equity markets, a stronger decline in the trade deficit for the month of September than expected, coming in at -284mln vs. -500mln expected; a attributed weakness in the AUD, which is down 10.30% against the USD since the beginning of 2013 we see resistance at 0.9540, then 0.9575-0.9650, and with support at 0.9470, followed by 0.9430 levels.

by Goldium FX Team

November 5, 2013

Futures markets pointing towards a weaker open. Main data today at 10 am with the ISM Non-Manufacturing of 54 vs. 54.4 the previous month. USD/CAD has strengthened overnight trading, the Lonnie losing some ground it gains from previous trading session. Trading range to expected topside 1.0550 and with support coming in at 1.0340, followed by 1.0250-75.

European markets opening weaker this morning, the European Union cut it’s growth forecasts for next year to 1.1 % vs. previous 1.2%, concerns facing the Euro-Zone. Focus will be on this Thursday’s ECB meeting, speculation is bank will leave the rates but it be no shock if we did see a cut. EUR/USD is now at 1.35 levels. Topsides are 1.3545, 1.3575-1.3660 downside support is 1.3460-1.3410.

Sterling was a biggest winner overnight, PMI Service (Oct) gaining 62.5 previous 60, more positive signs UK recovery. GBP/USD reached 1.6062 overnight with resistances of 1.6100 support well at over 1.5900.

Asia markets were mixed in the overnight, main data from Australia with the Reserve Bank of Australia leaving interest rates at 2.5%, however did mention interest rate cuts are still coming through the system. AUD does continues to climb to the “ to-high zone” after the announcement pulled back to the mid 94.00 level, gaining .30+. Today we are looking at resistance at 0.9570-0.9660, and support at 0.9450-94 cents.

JPY also trades slightly stronger from yesterday overnight pushing back to lower 98 level vs. USD. Support at 97.50- 96.90, and resistance at 98.90-99.40 next break in the pair we could enter into the 100.

by Goldium FX Team